Today, the UK will file for divorce from the European Union. This is the worst setback ever for the process of European integration that started with a six-nation coal and steel community in 1952. Over the last 12 months, we have written extensively about the potential impact on the UK and the EU. Below, we summarise our key views in 10 bullets:
Brexit is inevitable. After the two-year read more
The world is entering a period of heightened opportunities and risks. On balance, we expect the switch from political gridlock between the US Congress and the White House to results-oriented co-operation between a Republican majority in Congress and a Republican US President to yield serious pro-growth reforms that will outweigh the damage which Donald Trump’s protectionist inclinations, his “rule by Twitter” and his other unconventional traits may read more
Brexit will do some significant damage to the British economy. Greater London is the services capital of Europe. Today, companies take advantage of the great conveniences of Britain’s light-touch regulation, its competent administration, its deep pool of qualified labour and the English language to offer their services across Europe from a British base. That role will be somewhat diminished by a hard Brexit. Of course, Britain can read more
Brexit, Trump, Italy. For the third time within six months, a major political risk has materialised as Italian voters rejected Renzi’s constitutional reform by roughly 60% to 40%. That small Austria rebuffed its right-wing populists and chose a solidly pro-European candidate as its new figurehead president on the same day is no more than a consolation prize in this context.
Italy has missed a splendid opportunity to reform read more
A few weeks ago, a fund manager called to tell me a weird story. At a conference he had attended a little earlier, the famous Yanis Varoufakis had loudly complained about me, accusing me of having “doctored data” to smear him. Hmmh, I had not paid any attention to the musings of Varoufakis since he had moved from the Greek finance ministry to the global lecture circuit. read more
Populism, protectionism, nationalism and the erosion of the political middle ground: In Europe more so than in the US, some aspects of Donald Trump’s successful election campaign evoke memories of the dreadful 1930s. In this report, we ask how close the parallels are and what key risks we need to watch.
After the Brexit vote and the triumph of Trump, the echo of the early 1930s read more
After the UK vote for Brexit on 23 June, Trump’s triumph this is the second major upset victory for anti-establishment populists in the Western world this year. It does not bode well for votes to come elsewhere, including some key votes in Europe. The echoes of the populism and protectionism of the late 1920s and 1930s are still faint, but they are now a little less faint read more
For better or worse, we are living in exciting times. Globalisation and rapid technological change are creating huge opportunities. However, the gains are not evenly distributed. The major winners are (i) the hundreds of million people in formerly closed and backwards economies who have been lifted out of extreme poverty in the last two decades on an unprecedented scale and (ii) those in the advanced world who read more
Two months ago, the world woke up to learn that the UK had voted to leave the European Union. For two major reasons, the initial shock has subsided fast:
• Instead of taking charge, the leading Brexiteers lost the ensuing power struggle within the Conservative party as the mildly pro-EU Theresa May prevailed within just three weeks.
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- British regret? Over 3 million people sign an online petition to the UK parliament to discuss a second referendum.
- UK Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn faces a leadership challenge after his particularly lacklustre pro-EU campaign.
- The Scottish National Party (SNP) wants to prepare for an independence referendum to keep Scotland in the EU without quite saying that they want to call it immediately.
- Ireland reports a surge in applications read more