ITALY SAYS “NO” – HOW BAD COULD IT GET?

Brexit, Trump, Italy. For the third time within six months, a major political risk has materialised as Italian voters rejected Renzi’s constitutional reform by roughly 60% to 40%. That small Austria rebuffed its right-wing populists and chose a solidly pro-European candidate as its new figurehead president on the same day is no more than a consolation prize in this context.

Italy has missed a splendid opportunity to reform read more

The Varoufakis effect – revisited

A few weeks ago, a fund manager called to tell me a weird story. At a conference he had attended a little earlier, the famous Yanis Varoufakis had loudly complained about me, accusing me of having “doctored data” to smear him. ‎Hmmh, I had not paid any attention to the musings of Varoufakis since he had moved from the Greek finance ministry to the global lecture circuit. read more

AFTER TRUMP: NOTES ON THE PERILS OF POPULISM

Populism, protectionism, nationalism and the erosion of the political middle ground: In Europe more so than in the US, some aspects of Donald Trump’s successful election campaign evoke memories of the dreadful 1930s. In this report, we ask how close the parallels are and what key risks we need to watch.

After the Brexit vote and the triumph of Trump, the echo of the early 1930s read more

President Trump

After the UK vote for Brexit on 23 June, Trump’s triumph this is the second major upset victory for anti-establishment populists in the Western world this year. It does not bode well for votes to come elsewhere, including some key votes in Europe. The echoes of the populism and protectionism of the late 1920s and 1930s are still faint, but they are now a little less faint read more

COPING WITH THE POLITICS OF ANGER

For better or worse, we are living in exciting times. Globalisation and rapid technological change are creating huge opportunities. However, the gains are not evenly distributed. The major winners are (i) the hundreds of million people in formerly closed and backwards economies who have been lifted out of extreme poverty in the last two decades on an unprecedented scale and (ii) those in the advanced world who read more

AFTER THE BREXIT SHOCK

KEY NEWS:
- British regret? Over 3 million people sign an online petition to the UK parliament to discuss a second referendum.

- UK Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn faces a leadership challenge after his particularly lacklustre pro-EU campaign.

- The Scottish National Party (SNP) wants to prepare for an independence referendum to keep Scotland in the EU without quite saying that they want to call it immediately.

- Ireland reports a surge in applications read more

THE POLITICS OF BREXIT: A GERMAN VIEW

For once, let me start with the disclaimer: I am a German who has spent half of his adult life in London. That may colour my perspective. I am amazed by the current German backlash against the ECB, the only central bank that has ever‎ delivered a prolonged period of price stability for Germany. In the same way, I am amazed by some English views of the read more

BRITAIN BEWARE: THE POWER OF TRADE DIVERSION

How would the UK fare outside the EU? Nobody knows for sure. A divorce can be smooth, causing only modest damage. Or it can be messy, inflicting serious pain on everybody except the lawyers. It would all depend on the policy choices taken by both sides following a hypothetical vote for Brexit on 23 June 2016.

But history offers a stark lesson. From 1958 to 1972, the read more

THE VAROUFAKIS EFFECT

Rarely has a new government done so much damage in just one year. And rarely has a finance minister done so well for himself after having harmed his own country so badly within just six months in office. One year ago, the radical left swept to power in Athens. With the Syriza party and its leader Alexis Tsipras, the economist Yanis Varoufakis surged to global prominence as read more